After two consecutive days of “the sky is falling” reporting about the real estate market, I thought you all might appreciate some time meeting with our resident Lake Oroville Real Estate psychiatrist to help deal with this “tragic” news.
Free Real Estate Market, meet Dr. I Told You So
Dr. I Told You So: What seems to be the problem ... [Read More]
After two consecutive days of “the sky is falling” reporting about the real estate market, I thought you all might appreciate some time meeting with our resident Lake Oroville Real Estate psychiatrist to help deal with this “tragic” news.
Free Real Estate Market, meet Dr. I Told You So
Dr. I Told You So: What seems to be the problem today, Free Market
Free Market: I’m just exhausted, Doc.
I Told You So: Really? Tell me why.
Free Market: Well, every time I try to do my job, something, or someone, interferes with me.
I Told You So: Didn’t we have this conversation about 10 years ago?
Free Market: Yes, when a bunch of meddlers forced me to loan money to people who would never have been approved for a loan, had they let me do my job.
I Told You So: So, how has it gone since then?
Free Market: Well, I hit my head real hard when I fell of the cliff. Since then they have been trying to put me on disability, thinking that I am no longer capable of doing my job.
I Told You So: Let me get this right, they attempted to disable you, Free Market.
Free Market: Yes.
I Told You So: Didn’t I tell you that there is no way to disable you? That the only way to stop you is to take you over?
Free Market: Yes, but how come nobody else seems to understand this?
I Told You So: Who is nobody?Free Market: Well, Let’s see. Congress, The California Legislature, The National Association of REALTORS, the California Association of REALTORS and many individual REALTORS that I am around.
I Told You So: What did they do to you?
Free Market: There I was trying to recover from my fall, barely starting to feel like my old self again when all of a sudden I was told I wasn’t working fast enough and then they held me down and injected me with something they called stimulus.
I Told You So: Are you saying what I think you are saying.
Free Market: Yes, they injected me with the leftover Cash from Clunkers serum.
I Told You So: Oh no. No wonder you are exhausted.
Free Market: Yeah, as soon as they injected me I started running around feeling stronger that I have in the past three years. Everybody thought I was finally healing.
I Told You So: Not everybody.
Free Market: Huh?
I Told You So: Didn’t I tell you that if they tried the Cash for Clunkers medicine on you that it would not work. That it would only temporarily interrupt you, Free Market, from doing what you do.
Free Market: Yes.
I Told You So: So how is it going now.
Free Market: I am now going through withdrawals. I have come off my high and now everybody is saying that I am tanking again. And I think I am. Existing home sales are down almost 30% and new home sales are down over 12%.
I Told You So: Don’t panic about this! Sales are down now because of the high they put on you with that market interferce drug called “Tax Credit.” Now that the drug has worn off you have the chance to do the job you were established to do. But you have to carry the temporary burden of being looked down upon for going where you were already going before you were assaulted.
Free Market: Boy, am I glad to hear THAT.
I Told You So: Always remember this, Free Market. You are much like a mail carrier. Neither rain nor sleet, nor government or trade group interference, can keep you from your appointed duties.
Free Market: Thanks Doc.
I Told You So: You’re welcome. Now get out there and get that Supply and Demand thing going again!!! Oh, and that will be $300.00. You can pay my receptionist on the way out.
Free Market: Gee thanks, I guess the Free Market IS back.
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The game hunting world is all abuzz this morning as word spreads that Lake Oroville resident Pat Butler set a world record by bagging the largest Tule Elk while bow hunting on Grizzly Island yesterday.
According to reports from the hunting grounds, Butler, an owner of the ever popular Wagon Wheel Market, here in the Lake Oroville real ... [Read More]
The game hunting world is all abuzz this morning as word spreads that Lake Oroville resident Pat Butler set a world record by bagging the largest Tule Elk while bow hunting on Grizzly Island yesterday.
According to reports from the hunting grounds, Butler, an owner of the ever popular Wagon Wheel Market, here in the Lake Oroville real estate market, took the 8 x 8 elk during the afternoon hunt. By late afternoon representatives from the Department of Fish and Game certifed it as the largest elk ever taken by hunting with bow and arrow, granting Pat world record status for his efforts.
I think there is elk jerky in my future!!!!!!!!
Congratulations Pat.
Having spent a part of my working life, in the Lake Oroville real estate market, as a financial consultant with a major Wall Street brokerage company I was always entertained by, not only the jargon of the industry, but also by some of the odd, or some might say superstitious, ways that pundits use to predict ... [Read More]
Having spent a part of my working life, in the Lake Oroville real estate market, as a financial consultant with a major Wall Street brokerage company I was always entertained by, not only the jargon of the industry, but also by some of the odd, or some might say superstitious, ways that pundits use to predict the next direction that the market or the economy might move.
For example, the Super Bowl Indicator theorizes that the year in which a team from the AFC wins the Super Bowl the stock market will fall, but if an NFC team wins the market will rally. Amazingly, this “predictor” has been right 80% of the time over the years. Another of these anecdotal predictors is the Hem Line Effect. This theory says that as hem lines move up so does the market and when hem lines get longer the market drops.
So, what does this have to do with anything related to the real estate market in Lake Oroville, Paradise and Chico, you say?
As to those theories, nothing. But I think we unintentionally swerved into the first real estate industry anecdotal predictor of the real estate market, in our office. I call it the Redenbacher Effect.
I discovered this theory while Steffan, one of the associates in my office was popping his $1.00 bag of popcorn ( that he bought at the Dollar Store, because that is where REALTORS® shop these days) in our microwave oven. You might imagine the quality level of $1.00 popcorn is not quite the same as the good stuff you get at the movies for about $5.00 a bag. The fact that Steffan eats at least a bag a day of this stuff has leads me to believe that he is quite the popcorn connoisseur.
I will never forget the profoundness of the words that eminated from his lips as the Redenbacher Effect was born:
”I sure will be glad when the market gets good again so I can afford to buy something better than this $1.00 popcorn c*@p.”
With the suddenness of a light bulb being switched on to interrupt the darkness of an empty room, it hit me that we may finally have an accurate way to forecast the pending direction of not only the Lake Oroville real estate market, but the real estate markets of all 4 corners of the world!
The Redenbacher Effect is defined as this:
When Steffan is eating $1.00 popcorn c*@p the real estate market is c*@p. When he starts buying more expensive popcorn (i.e. Orville Redenbacher Movie popcorn) the market is going to improve.
Now you might be thinking that I have finally lost it, and actually, you may be right. But just think about how well (or not so well) the so-called experts have predicted the direction of this market. I mean, really, can this be any less accurate than the methods they use. I think not.
There is, however, one thing that can throw this whole theory into a tailspin. What happens when someone GIVES us a box of premium popcorn. For example, I was telling my friend Jim Moll about my theory yesterday and when I arrived at the office this morning there was a box of Orville Redenbacher popcorn at my backdoor.
It took me a while to consider the consequences of his generosity. What will happen if we eat this premium popcorn while the market is down like it is? Will the market improve even though Steffan did not pay for it? The respective answers are, NOTHING, and NO.
You see it occurred to me that Jim’s gift was a POPCORN CREDIT. He was simply giving us popcorn in the hopes that it would give the market time to stabilize so that we can buy the better and more expensive popcorn later. So we have had the CASH FOR CLUNKERS credit, the FUNDS FOR FORECLOSURES credit and now we have CORN FOR C*@P credit.
I wonder if this will work better than the previous credits?……I think we all know the answer to that one hmmmmmm.
Stay tuned to this blog post for updates on the Redenbacher Effect. And remember, you first heard about it here.
August 1, 2010 marked the 35th anniversary of the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that shook the Lake Oroville real estate market that summer day in 1975. A quake, that most scientists that study these things say, was induced by the construction of Oroville Dam and filling of Lake Oroville.
The quake, which caused an estimate $2 million in damages, mostly greeted homeowners ... [Read More]
August 1, 2010 marked the 35th anniversary of the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that shook the Lake Oroville real estate market that summer day in 1975. A quake, that most scientists that study these things say, was induced by the construction of Oroville Dam and filling of Lake Oroville.
The quake, which caused an estimate $2 million in damages, mostly greeted homeowners who had masonry fireplaces with collapsed or cracked chimneys.
In light of the recent observation of this historic annniversary I want to share an article with you which discusses whether earthquake insurance is worth the cost of paying for it.
Happy anniversary and happy reading.
Click here for article
Good news for those of you in the Lake Oroville, Chico, and Paradise real estate markets, who have been unable to enjoy the benefits of my AGENTnTOUCH™ app on your Android smartphone.
I have just rolled out the Droid edition of this app and it is now available for download. I have also made some recent ... [Read More]
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